FAMOUS WRONG GUESSES IN HISTORY - WHEN ALL EUROPE GUESSED WRONG

Please go through below placed ad and its content. “This time is different” syndrome is so evident that I decided not to put additional explanation. But, I do welcome your comments!

FAMOUS WRONG GUESSES IN HISTORY

WHEN ALL EUROPE GUESSED WRONG

The date — October 3rd, 1719. The scene — Hotel de Nevers, Paris. A wild mob — fighting  to be heard. “Fifty shares!” “I’ll take two hundred!” “Five hundred!” “A thousand here!” “Ten  thousand!”

Shrill cries of women. Hoarse shoats of men. Speculators all — exchanging their gold and  jewels or a lifetime’s meager savings for magic shares in John Law’s Mississippi  Company. Shares that were to make them rich overnight.

Then the bubble burst. Down — down went the shares. Facing utter ruin, the frenzied  populace tried to “sell”. Panic-stricken mobs stormed the Banque Royale. No use! The  bank’s coffers were empty. John Law had fled. The great Mississippi Company and its  promise of wealth had become but a wretched memory.

TODAY, YOU NEED NOT GUESS.

History sometimes repeats itself — but not invariably. In 1719 there was practically no way of finding out the facts about the Mississippi venture. How different the position of the investor in 1929!

 Today, it is inexcusable to buy a “bubble” — inexcusable because unnecessary. For now every investor — whether his capital consists of a few thousands or mounts into the millions — has at his disposal facilities for obtaining the facts. Facts which — as far as is humanly possible — eliminate the hazards of speculation and substitute in their place sound principles of investment.

The ad — for a company called Standard Statistics, whose address has since been turned into a Chipotle Mexican Grill — ran on Sept. 19, 1929, about a month before the market crashed.

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“Capitalism! Capitalism is an alternative to what we have now. I highly recommend it.”

Federal Reserve considers buying new type of bond-buying in order to subdue worries about future inflation.  The aim of the program is to neutralize fears stemmed from the possibility that FED money printing to aid recovery may fuel inflation. The Wall Street journal reports that the plan will progress according to the following scenario: FED will print money to buy long-term mortgage or Treasury bonds, but immediately will borrow back the money for short-periods at low rates. But there are many critics against this “sterilized” quantitative easing.  For instance Jim Grant describes the new policy as “manipulation the value of the currency”.  He mentions that repressing interest rates puts the economy on more risky position.  Grant’s take can be categorized under three items:

·        Unintended Consequences could be harmful & Unbalanced

·        FED should learn from 1920-1921 Depression

·        U.S. Policymakers are Prolonging Symptoms of Recession

Maria Bartiromo: “What are the alternatives?”

Jim Grant: “Capitalism! Capitalism is an alternative to what we have now. I highly recommend it.”

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